For the last few weeks, I have done a fair amount of thinking on what my inaugural post for the New Security Project should look like. Eventually, I arrived at the conclusion that whatever I cover in this article should include two points important to me personally: First, it should set the tone, by representing the type of forward-thinking commentary and analysis I want to publish on this platform. Second, it should offer an assessment of the vast issues facing us, one which avoids abject nihilism, while also acknowledging that we live in unprecedented and increasingly perilous times.
My reasoning here is fairly simple: the zeitgeist of 2025 is among the grimmest I can remember. Today is an era of both ascendant authoritarianism and international fragmentation, powered by the notion that governments, and the peoples they represent, have lost more than they have gained through decades of free trade, immigration, and social liberalization. Enabled by this reaction, the strategic incoherence and anti-institutionalism embodied by the first, and now second, Trump administration has spread rapidly across the West. Dozens of copy-cat demagogues have successfully translated populist anger and disinformation in their own countries into electoral success, tearing down programs and safeguards at home and abroad designed to aid the most marginalized members of society. As a result, the state of the world in 2025 is one of increasing fragmentation, waning democratic rights, and a very real sense of danger permeating the field of international relations.
At the risk of sounding cliche, if we are to have any hope of changing these trends, we need a better grasp on the overlapping forces driving them. With that in mind, the following overview is the first in a more detailed series of pieces I plan to publish over the coming months, exploring some of the factors driving insecurity in our modern world, and where I think they might lead us.
Democratic Backsliding
The erosion of democratic governance, once proclaimed as the bedrock of Western political systems, has accelerated at an astonishing pace in the past two decades. As Freedom House bluntly puts it in their most recent yearly report: “Global freedom declined for the 18th consecutive year in 2023. The breadth and depth of the deterioration were extensive. Political rights and civil liberties were diminished in 52 countries, while only 21 countries made improvements.”
The United States, long considered (correctly or not) to be the standard-bearer of liberal democracy, has undergone an uncontrolled slide into illiberalism. The re-election of Donald Trump in 2024, following his tumultuous first term and attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election, has once again upended the international community. Trump's potent brand of populist authoritarianism, characterized by attacks on the press, immigrants, women, and anyone else deemed overly ‘woke’, his politicization of the judiciary, and his blatant contempt for checks and balances has provided the modern blueprint for aspiring autocrats worldwide.
In Europe, the situation is equally alarming. The rise of far-right parties in countries like France, Italy, and Sweden has shifted the continent’s political landscape dramatically. In Hungary, once heralded as a success story of post-Soviet democratization, leaders have systematically dismantled independent institutions, rewritten the constitution, and silenced opposition voices. The European Union itself, designed as a bulwark against authoritarianism, now finds itself grappling with member states that openly flout its core democratic principles.
EU aspirants and new members alike are also increasingly faced with crises of democracy: In the tiny nation of Georgia, leaders of the pro-Kremlin ‘Georgian Dream’ party –fresh off an electoral victory likely rife with fraud– have had opposition politicians beaten in the streets, and arrested hundreds of protestors, who report torture and abuse at the hands of authorities. In Romania, the EU’s most recent joiner, far-right candidate Călin Georgescu won a shock victory in the first round of presidential elections back in December, which were immediately annulled by the Romanian Constitutional Court, sparking mass protests and hurling the country into an ongoing political crisis.
And this trend is far from limited to the West: in India, the world's largest democracy, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has continued to consolidate its power, further marginalizing minority communities and stifling dissent. In El Salvador, strongman president Nayib Bukele has effectively ended his country’s long struggle with gang violence, at the cost of imprisoning an estimated 3 out of every 100 men in the country, while he dismantles any opposition and gleefully advertises his country as an international black site for-hire.
In my (admittedly biased) view, these democratic regressions collectively represent one of the greatest modern threats to global security. Their continued spread will turn the world into a crueler, more arbitrary place, where social contracts have little meaning and people’s lives can be ruined or ended on a whim by those in positions of power.
The Fragmentation of the Global Order
As democratic norms and governance collapse, the post-World War II international order also finds itself under unprecedented strain. The institutions and alliances that have underpinned Western stability for decades are finally buckling under the weight of nationalist pressures and great power competition.
The United Nations, already struggling with its profound structural limitations, has been further weakened by the withdrawal of key member states from various agencies and treaties. The U.S. departure from the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic set a dangerous precedent, one that has since been followed by other nations in different contexts. This a la carte approach to international cooperation has left the world badly-equipped to address transnational challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and nuclear proliferation.
NATO, once the cornerstone of Western security, has been rocked by internal divisions. Trump's transactional approach to the alliance, coupled with Turkey's increasingly authoritarian trajectory and closer ties with Russia, has raised questions about its long-term viability. The lack of a unified Western approach has also emboldened revisionist powers like Russia and China to pursue more aggressive foreign policies.
In the economic sphere, the World Trade Organization has been rendered largely ineffective, unable to mediate the increasing number of trade disputes between major economies. The proliferation of bilateral and regional trade agreements has created a complex web of rules and regulations, further fragmenting the global economic landscape. At the same time, the protectionist policies of the Trump Administration are likely to have further ripple effects, causing other countries to enact reciprocal tariffs in an effort to protect their strategic national industries and labor forces.
Global fragmentation has even crept into the digital realm, as internet sovereignty is rapidly becoming the guiding principle of US, European, and Chinese policymakers alike. The short-lived American ban of Tik Tok, as well as the numerous new data privacy and cybersecurity laws in the EU are all harbingers of far greater division to come.
The Rise of Techno-Authoritarianism
For me, perhaps the most insidious development of the past two decades has been the rise of so-called ‘techno-authoritarianism’. Put simply, this dynamic has seen authoritarian regimes weaponizing emerging technologies to enhance their control over subject populations and project power beyond their borders.
China's social credit system, once dismissed as dystopian fiction, has now been successfully refined and exported to other authoritarian states, as has all manner of advanced spyware from Israel and other countries. These systems, powered by artificial intelligence and big data analytics, are highly effective tools for governments to monitor and control all aspects of citizens' lives, from their financial transactions to their social interactions.
The proliferation of deepfake technology and advanced disinformation campaigns has made it increasingly difficult for citizens to discern truth from fiction. State-sponsored troll farms and bot networks flood social media platforms with carefully crafted narratives, shaping public opinion and sowing discord in democratic societies.
Cyber warfare has also become a daily reality, with state and non-state actors launching increasingly sophisticated attacks on critical infrastructure, financial systems, and government institutions. The line between war and peace has blurred, with conflicts now fought in the shadows of cyberspace as much as on traditional battlefields.
A More Dangerous World
The cumulative effect of these trends is a world that is demonstrably more dangerous and unpredictable. The breakdown of arms control agreements, coupled with advancements in hypersonic missiles and autonomous weapons systems, has even reignited fears of a new arms race– fears expressed to me both publicly and privately by those in defense and intelligence circles. There is little doubt that the risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict has increased dramatically, particularly in hotspots like the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Baltic region.
Climate change, long recognized as a threat multiplier, has also now thoroughly begun to manifest its most severe consequences. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and prolonged droughts have already triggered mass migrations and resource conflicts. The inability of the international community to mount a coordinated response has exacerbated these crises, leading to further humanitarian disasters and geopolitical instability.
The COVID-19 pandemic, while only a distant memory for most in 2025, has left an indelible mark on both global health and the fabric of our societies. The uneven distribution of vaccines and treatments during the crisis has deepened global inequalities and fueled resentment towards Western nations. This has provided fertile ground for the spread of anti-Western ideologies and alternative governance models promoted by authoritarian states. Similarly, social isolation from lockdown policies in much of the West helped to drive a generation of chronically online young men to the right, filling their social media feeds with disinformation and misogynistic content.
So, to sum up my thoughts here: it is clear that the world stands at something of a watershed moment in 2025, teetering on the edge of a new, far more unstable era in international politics. The rapid rise of transnational authoritarianism, the fragmentation of the Western-dominated global order, the increasing strains of climate change, and the emergence of new technologies have created a perfect storm of challenges that threaten to reshape the world in profound and destructive ways.
While some might consider this assessment overly morbid, I would argue that inherent pessimism, coupled with a fierce determination to change things, is the only way anything has ever improved. And even to my overly cynical eyes, there are certainly glimmers of hope. The ceaseless resilience of civil society, the power of human ingenuity, and the enduring appeal of democratic values all offer potential pathways to a more positive future. Finally, I would like to close with this: as more and more people are forced to confront these challenges, it is imperative that we remain clear-eyed about the threats we face, while not succumbing to despair. The future is not predetermined, and through informed analysis, strategic foresight, and collective action, it is possible to help shape a global order that reflects our highest aspirations rather than our darkest fears.